The Alexander Nikishin Situation

Carolina faces a very tough decision with the 24 year old defenseman.

Even as recently as six months ago, if you had told me that we’d be in this situation, I would have laughed at you. Hell, even two weeks ago I probably would’ve laughed at you. But yet, here we are. Reports from multiple NHL insiders have stated that the Hurricanes have explored the market for Alexander Nikishin. While there haven’t been reports of any offers being made or any specific teams in on him, this is more than an insider simply wondering about his availability. Whether Carolina re-signs him or trades him remains to be seen, but with the acquisition of John Carlson’s rights, things get interesting. Here, I want to discuss the cases for and against trading Nikishin. It’s a fascinating story to keep up with during the offseason, and were Carolina a bigger market, it would dominate the news cycles.

The case for keeping Nikishin

It’s not hard to see why you’d keep Nikishin. He’s a 6’4” defenseman that set the team’s record for goals by a rookie defenseman this past year. He also had a decent year production wise with minimal power play opportunities, so you’d expect roughly 40+ points next year if his role were to increase. His defensive play should take a step forward as well now that he is comfortable at the NHL level, so it’s natural to expect that he’ll be a much more impactful player in his second NHL season. You look at the KHL tape and it’s not hard to see why this player was such a highly touted prospect coming into the NHL. He was mobile, hit everything in sight and was one of the KHL’s most consistently productive defensemen in the offensive zone. He looked like the complete package and a true future number one defenseman. That sort of player doesn’t grow on trees, and if you move him, you may spend the next few years searching for the next Nikishin.

There’s also Nikishin’s age. He turns 25 in October and is vastly younger than most of the Hurricanes’ other defensemen, save for K’Andre Miller. Keeping some of the defensive core on the younger side will keep the team competitive for much longer. While he may only have one or two more years left of improvement before his true prime, we’re looking at a player that could be dominant over the course of the next eight seasons if he makes some adjustments to his game. And with Jaccob Slavin being 32 years old, the Hurricanes need to start preparing for what it might look like if Slavin takes on a lesser role in the coming years. This past season we already saw that Slavin wasn’t playing at one hundred percent, and his game suffered as a result. His eight points in 39 games were his lowest totals ever in the NHL, and there were times this year when he actually looked human. Now, Slavin still had a solid year defensively and his performance in game six of the Stanley Cup Final was nothing short of clinical.

Ultimately, you also don’t want to give another team a number one defenseman, and unless the trade is one for one, here’s a good chance you’re giving up a dollar to get some quarters. Essentially, you give up one really good asset for a few okay assets. That’s a tough situation to win, especially given the contract situation. Teams could just sit there and force the Hurricanes into signing Nikishin to a bridge deal that walks him right to UFA status. Then, if the player wants, he can sign wherever he wants to and the Hurricanes get nothing. Reports from Pierre LeBrun indicate that Nikishin may not have been happy with his role this past season, and who can blame him? He went from playing nearly 30 minutes a night in the KHL to averaging half that in the NHL. Of course he’s going to be frustrated. Given Carolina’s so-so leverage in this situation, it’s reasonable to wonder whether or not the team can truly come out ahead in a trade.

The case for trading Nikshin

Now, this is a lot more nuanced. Carolina’s left side is currently Jaccob Slavin, K’Andre Miller and then Alexander Nikishin, with Shayne Gostisbehere also in the mix as another left handed defenseman. Nikshin isn’t leapfrogging Slavin or Miller anytime soon, so he’s a bit buried on the depth chart. While the Hurricanes could potentially balance out the even strength time a bit more or give Nikishin more opportunities on the power play, the fact of the matter is he’s the third pairing defenseman. Given the aforementioned rumors that Nikishin isn’t happy with his role, it may make sense to explore the market in case he’s not willing to sign long term. Nikishin is still at the peak of his value around the league and teams are going to be lining up for the chance at getting a player like him.

Carolina isn’t one to shy away from a tough contract negotiation. In fact, there have been agent polls done by sites like The Athletic that state that Carolina is one of the more difficult teams to deal with. So with that in mind, the team can wait it out with Nikishin. GM Eric Tulsky mentioned that his contract negotiation is on the back burner for now. Nikishin received a qualifying offer and due to rule 10.2.c, he is ineligible to be given an offer sheet by another team. Therefore, the team can wait things out with Nikishin and focus on improving the team however they can. And I know some folks are leery of the reported $8 million asking price, but with the cap rising as rapidly as it is, that’s just what defensemen are going to cost now.

The case for trading Nikishin is that he’s at the peak of his value right now. He was on a Stanley Cup winning team, he is a controllable asset for another two years, and he’s just now entering his prime. There’s also the fact that his style of play is tantalizing to 31 other teams. Everyone could use a 6’4” defenseman that hits like a freight train and can put up solid production from the blue line. As such, you’re likely demanding a pretty hefty return if you’re Carolina. No other player on the roster can net you a return like Nikishin without creating a serious hole on the roster. While Charles Alexis Legault doesn’t have the upside of Nikishin, he may be better suited for a third pairing role. And Joel Nystrom has already signed a four year extension to put him in consideration for the NHL lineup as well. So Carolina has some players waiting in the wings if need be.

Without ragging on Nikishin too much, it’s clear that his defensive zone play wasn’t up to par at all this past year. He was chasing plays too often and left out of position due to his poor skating and ill-timed pinches. That’s something that did get better as the season went on, but the skating is going to have to see some massive improvements before I stop getting concerned.

Summary

There’s a strong case to be made for trading Nikishin, and there’s just as strong a case for keeping him. Ultimately, the Hurricanes will make the right decision with the player. It’s not necessarily something the team is rushing to make a decision on, though, so this process will likely carry on pretty far into the offseason one way or the other. The fact that the Hurricanes are even considering this speaks volumes to not only how the roster is constructed but how well they’ve drafted in recent years as well. A few years ago, trading Nikishin would have been out of the question. Now, it’s at least a reasonable possibility.