Rafael Devers Traded: Reaction and Analysis

The Boston Red Sox traded their star DH amidst months of controversy and front office drama.

It’s not often you see a team go on a five game win streak, sweeping their division rivals in the process, and immediately go out and trade their best hitter. And yet, that’s exactly what the Red Sox did this week, trading Rafael Devers to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for RHP Jordan Hicks, LHP Kyle Harrison and two prospects. The Giants take on Devers’ entire salary, while the Red Sox take on Hicks’ less offensive but still expensive contract. It’s a shocking trade, one that sent a lot of ripples through the fan base and league. The Red Sox were playing their best baseball of the season, and despite a few bumps along the way, it seemed like Devers was accepting his role. When you go beyond the surface level, however, it becomes clearer that this trade was inevitable and shouldn’t be as surprising as it seems.

Devers Signs Extension

First, let’s go back to when Devers signed his extension with the Red Sox. In January of 2023, the Red Sox signed Devers to a 10 year, $300 million contract. After GM Chaim Bloom received plenty of criticism for the Mookie Betts trade and letting Xander Bogaerts head to free agency, the team needed to do something to keep their players in house. So, Bloom elected to commit to Devers long term. Devers had been one of the better hitters in baseball in his young career, showcasing power and an impressive approach at the plate. When the deal was signed, it looked like the Red Sox were getting a player that could hit 30 or more home runs a year and hit roughly .280, which is excellent for a power hitter. Devers had a lot of questions in the field, however, being statistically the worst defensive third baseman in the league and frequently leading the league in errors at third base. So, while Devers’ value came from his bat, the play in the field was a concern.

Bloom Fired, Breslow Hired

After a disappointing 2024 season, the Red Sox decided to fire GM Chaim Bloom and hired Craig Breslow to take his place. Breslow was a first time GM that was hailed for his work at improving the Chicago Cubs’ pitching, but hadn’t had experience managing a team at this point. As expected, there were some bumps along the way. Under Bloom, the messaging to Devers was that he was the team’s third baseman now and moving forward, and they wouldn’t take him off of third. Under Breslow, that was no longer the case.

Now, the way this was handled was poor. Originally, the team committed to Devers at third base for the 2025 season. But when the team signed Alex Bregman, it was clear that they preferred to have Bregman play third and bring up top prospect Kristian Campbell to play second. And the team did just that, telling Devers that he would be moved to DH. Naturally, Devers was upset by this and voiced his displeasure with the team’s decision openly, saying that he was the team’s third baseman and that he wasn’t happy with what they were asking of him. And who can blame him? He’s told that he’s awful at third base so he works on it for years to get better. He was able to get to be either average or slightly below average at the position, and then the team goes out and tells him that he’s terrible and they never want him to play in the field again. So, after all of that work, his team tells him that he’s awful. Understandably, Devers was upset with the change in messaging.

The team wasn’t sympathetic, though, with manager Alex Cora saying things to the effect of “Chaim isn’t in charge anymore.” He said this knowing that Breslow had a different vision than Bloom did for Devers and that he should do what’s best for the team. Now, whether you agree with that sentiment or not, it’s how the organization believed that Devers should act.

The Season

Devers started off the season as baseball’s worst hitter, striking out 15 times in five games while failing to register a hit. His month of May turned him back into one of the best hitters in baseball, and prior to being traded, he hit a clutch home run against the Yankees to give the Red Sox a much-needed insurance run in a 2-0 victory. Backtracking a bit, though, let’s talk about some injuries. First, Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas was injured on a fluke play running to first base. He blew out his knee landing on the base itself and it was announced that he would miss the remainder of the season due to injury. So, naturally, the Red Sox ask Devers to play first. He refuses. Bregman then goes down with an injury and Devers doesn’t play third, causing reports to come out that some teammates had become frustrated with Devers’ unwillingness to do what was right for the team. It seemed like the player was being selfish and his teammates were sick of it. Even after ownership flew out to Kansas City to speak with Devers personally, it became clear that the relationship was fractured and that a move was inevitable.

The Return

So, what does Boston get in return for Rafael Devers?

Jordan Hicks, RHP - Hicks is a hard throwing pitcher that frequently hit triple digits with his sinker. He’s spent the majority of his career as a reliever, but signed with San Francisco in 2024 to try things out as a starter. It has not gone well for the 28 year old pitcher, and San Francisco had apparently seen enough to move him. His Baseball Savant page has some interesting stats from this season, though. He’s in the 93rd percentile for fastball velocity, 89th percentile for barrel percentage and 96th percentile for ground ball percentage. So, Hicks throws hard, doesn’t get a lot of barrels on the ball and generates a lot of ground balls. The issue is that when he does allow contact it’s hard contact. Hicks has an awful hard hit rate, ranking in the 24th percentile among qualified pitchers in the MLB this season. His velocity is down, and it’s pretty clear that he really only has his sinker to rely upon. With how many starters Boston has, it wouldn’t shock me to see the team elect to put Hicks back into a bullpen role. Sure, it’s not ideal to be paying him the money he’s making if he’s only going to be a reliever, but perhaps seeing less innings will allow Hicks to get some of his velocity back. It wasn’t long ago that he was one of the better relievers in baseball, so maybe the Red Sox can unlock that again.

Kyle Harrison, LHP - Harrison is a former top 30 prospect in the MLB that has had a bit of a bumpy start to his MLB career. Still, the lefty is only 23 years old and has some promising underlying data. In the MLB this season, Harrison has been above average in fastball run value, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and extension. His pitches get hit very hard, though, which has resulted in some struggles early on. Part of Harrison’s struggles are with his secondary pitches. Currently, he throws a slurve and a changeup, neither of which have shown a lot of promise at the next level. His fastball is decent and there’s potential for added velocity, though. Right now, he averages 95.1 miles per hour with his fastball and if he can get up to 96 or 97 consistently, he’ll be much better. The Red Sox optioned Harrison to AAA Worcester in order to work on a few things with his arsenal, such as improving his secondary pitches and adding a cutter to his pitch mix in order to help against right handed batters. If Harrison can bring up one or two of his secondary offerings and make them average pitches, I could see him being a back end starter for the team.

Note: reports from Soxprospects.com and others have indicated that Harrison is adding a Sweeper and a Sinker in addition to a cutter.

James Tibbs III, OF/1B - Tibbs is an interesting piece in this trade. He was drafted 13th overall in the 2024 draft, one pick after the Red Sox selected Braden Montgomery 12th overall. Montgomery would be included in the Crochet trade, and rumors are that the Sox were interested in Tibbs as well. There’s something to be said about Tibbs’ potential as a hitter, as scouts talk about his advanced hit tool and power potential. They believe he could tap into 20 home run a year power during his career if he makes it to the majors. There’s a decent sized “if” there, as Tibbs has struggled at the plate early in his pro career and doesn’t have a lot of other projectable tools. He’s not the best athlete, he has average at best speed, his arm is average and he’s an average at best fielder. The Sox have discussed having Tibbs take some reps at first base to see if there’s a fit at that position. Otherwise, he projects as a corner outfielder. His bat could play at a corner outfield position, but it sounds like he’ll never be a great defender. The Red Sox assigned Tibbs to AA Portland, where he has three hits and two RBIs in three games. Tibbs currently ranks as Boston’s sixth best prospect according to MLB Pipeline.

Jose Bello, RHP - Bello has been one of the better pitchers in rookie ball this year, sporting a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings. Still, as a 20 year old, that’s expected at that level. He got a late start pitching and has a good slider and a decent fastball, but he’s still such a raw player that it’s hard to project what he’ll be at this point. The obvious hope is that he can turn into a decent prospect for the Red Sox, but as of right now, it would surprise me if he finds his way into their top 30.

Final Thoughts

This deal is as complex as it gets. A lot can be true in this situation. The Red Sox screwed up by not being honest with Devers about their plans, and Devers also acted unprofessionally after the fact. The return itself isn’t great. Hicks shouldn’t start in the MLB and will likely be a setup reliever. Not an awful role, but not exactly one worth what he’s making. Harrison has potential to start, and could potentially be a middle of the rotation starter. It sounds like the Red Sox are working hard to get his arsenal up to par before they put him in the MLB. Tibbs has intriguing potential at the plate, and playing at first base should make him versatile. He could at least be a platoon bat option at the MLB level with his play at the plate, but ideally he’s a full-time player. And Bello at least has some intriguing upside, although he’s years away from seeing the majors. Overall, it’s not a great trade for the Red Sox. It may look better if the team decides to use the money that they’re saving to improve the current roster, though. They now have some salary flexibility to either add a bat or continue to improve upon their pitching.